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Up EU-Russia
Treaty!
By
Sergei Roy
Sergei Roy's Comment: As we know all too well, talks on a new EU-Russia treaty, to take the place of the one unveiled in 1997 and expired in 2007, were cut short on September 1st in the wake of the August conflict in the Caucasus. This EU gesture was meant as "punishment" of Russia for what Western politicians and propaganda artists like to describe as the "Kremlin's aggressive foreign policy," of which slapping down Georgia for its act of naked, genocidal aggression is apparently a vivid instance. As punishments go, this one was a distinct, I'd even say resounding, flop. Russia's FM Sergei Lavrov made it clear that Russia could jolly well do without a new treaty altogether, and there is a lot of sense in that. It is not easy to see how the absence of such a treaty could critically impact relations between Russia's No.1 client and investor - namely, EU, and EU's biggest energy source - namely, Russia. Particularly in times of global economic crisis, when markets are at a premium. At the same time it is clear to both sides that hammering out such a treaty, or even setting up a format for discussing it over what looks like quite a long time to come (officials on both sides are talking of a two-three year time frame at the least), would be an advantage. For Russia, that means that the original reason for the suspension of negotiations, this curious desire to "punish" Russia, has been put on a very distant back burner by its EU partners, or the vast majority of them. Diplomatically, this is, if not a victory, then a distinct sign of progress in relations. Nothing to be sneezed at, in these turbulent times. By deciding to resume the treaty talks on December 2, the EU is clearly cocking a snook at the outgoing US administration, which still sticks to its nonsensical determination to press for an annulment of the results of the August conflict by forcing Russia to go back on its recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to withdraw its troops from these republics, stationed there at their request. "We cautioned the EU and its member states about starting the partnership and cooperation negotiations in light of Russia not fulfilling the cease-fire agreement," said U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Merkel in a statement to the press. This warning was clearly not heeded by the EU leaders. It was publicly resented by Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. Whatever they may be saying publicly, EU leaders have clearly made up their minds on the new situation in the Caucasus, accepted it as a fact of life - much like Russia has accepted the Kosovo situation - and are shaping their foreign policy accordingly. Importantly, their decision on the resumption of talks sends a signal to the incoming US administration that EU's security concerns - political, military, economic - are not fully consonant with those of the current US policies. This means two things at least. One: European leaders expect the new US administration's policies, especially vis-à-vis Russia, to be different from America's current, clearly unrealistic stance. And two: the new US president will find a new format for debating EU-Russia relations already in operation. He will have to take cognizance of it as a fait accompli and make proper adjustments to his own foreign policy in this area. This will surely cramp America's unilateralist style - but that's what it has been asking for, for the longest time.
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